Why ROAS drops after Black Friday and what to do in January

Every year I see the same scenario: Black Friday goes well, December starts promisingly, and then ROAS drops sharply and stays low until February. Many store owners react by cutting the whole budget or, the other way round, by raising it to “catch up”. Both options cost money. In this article I explain why ROAS drops after Black Friday and what to do, concretely, in December and January. Why ROAS drops after Black Friday Demand has been used up. Many customers did their seasonal shopping in November, on sale. Those who remain are either undecided or waiting for the next sale. Discounts trained customers to wait. If you had -40% in November, full price in December looks expensive and the conversion rate falls. Media costs stay high until Christmas. Competition for attention peaks in December, so you pay more for the same impression. The last delivery day before the holidays cuts conversions abruptly. After that date, gift buyers stop buying online. Algorithms learned on campaign data. Campaigns optimised on Black Friday behaviour look for the same kind of shopper, who is no longer active. January is a low-budget month for customers, after holiday spending. What not to do Don't switch off all campaigns at once. You lose the learning history, and restarting in February costs more. Don't extend discounts forever. A “Black Friday extended” running until Christmas eats your margin and cheapens your brand. Don't judge by single-day ROAS. In transition periods, daily numbers are noise. Look at 7-day windows. The plan, period by period .comparison-cards { display: flex; flex-direction: column; gap: 1.5rem; } .comparison-card { background: #fff; border-radius: 16px; padding: 20px; border: 2px solid #efefef; } .comparison-header { display: flex; justify-content: space-between; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 12px; } .comparison-row { display: flex; justify-content: space-between; padding: 8px 0; border-top: 1px solid #efefef; font-size: 14px; color: #1f2937; }…